Why Did an Anti-Government Movement Win in Argentina?
And why you should pay attention, wherever you are.
You are reading The Third Angle. The publication is mostly about crypto and economics, my areas of expertise, but could also be about many other things such as geopolitics, science, AI, and health: all areas I love as well.
The Third Angle is run by Juan Aranovich, an economist from Argentina, managing editor of Unchained, researcher at Ryze Labs, and crypto enthusiast.
I’ve been reading Martin Gurri's book, "The Revolt of the Public,". Highly recommend.
In the book, a clear pattern emerges: the digital age has profoundly transformed the relationship between the public and traditional power structures. This transformation, catalyzed by the internet and social media, has given rise to new public voices, challenging established narratives and institutions. Argentina's recent political upheaval, culminating in Javier Milei's presidential victory, echoes this global trend, encapsulating a public yearning for drastic change.
For four decades, Argentina has been under the dominion of the same political party (with short-lived exceptions), a tenure marked by corruption, economic mismanagement, and social decay.
In November 2023, this narrative reached a climax when Argentinians, in a resounding response to their fatigue with the "same people as always," elected Milei, a radical libertarian and an advocate of the Austrian school of economics. His victory did not just signal a political shift; it manifested the public's revolt against a system perceived as fundamentally flawed and unresponsive.
History rhymes….
This sentiment is not unique to Argentina. Post-2008, the world witnessed similar expressions of discontent: the Arab Spring, the Occupy Wall Street movement, and Spain's Indignados. Gurri's analysis in "The Revolt of the Public" sheds light on these phenomena, highlighting their common thread – a vehement opposition to existing structures, yet a notable absence of solid proposals for change. While successful in showcasing public dissatisfaction, these movements often struggled to transition from protest to policy, from outcry to outline.
Milei's campaign, however, diverged from this pattern. Like these movements, he capitalized on anti-establishment sentiments, but unlike them, he brought a concrete ideological framework: economic liberalism. His proposals weren't just a critique of the status quo but offered an alternative vision, resonating with a populace desperate for a different trajectory.
This resonance found an unexpected stronghold among the poor, a demographic traditionally not aligned with far-right economic ideologies like those Milei champions. Unlike the post-2008 movements, which primarily reflected the frustrations of the middle and upper classes feeling betrayed by a system they believed had failed them, Milei’s appeal cut across economic lines. In Argentina, the pervasive disillusionment with the incumbent political class transcended traditional socioeconomic boundaries. Milei, with his radical economic proposals, managed to garner significant support from the poor, who have often been the most affected by the country’s economic instability and political corruption.
This phenomenon stands out as a deviation from the norm observed in similar movements globally. It indicates a deeper, more complex layer of political dissatisfaction in Argentina. The poor, typically reliant on state support and more skeptical of free-market rhetoric, found a voice in Milei’s promises of sweeping change. This shift suggests that the public's frustration with the existing political and economic systems overrode traditional ideological alignments. The poor in Argentina, battered by years of economic mismanagement, hyperinflation, and ineffective governance, were willing to embrace a radically different approach, even if it diverged from their historical political and economic inclinations.
Milei’s success in attracting votes from this demographic underscores a pivotal aspect of contemporary political movements: the increasing unpredictability of voter behavior in the face of widespread systemic dissatisfaction.
A parallel with Obama
Parallel to this is the curious case of Barack Obama, a figure seemingly at odds with Milei in ideology. Obama, a proponent of the welfare state, also harnessed a similar anti-systemic energy. He, too, called out the systemic wrongdoings and positioned himself as a champion of the people. This parallel between Milei and Obama underscores a broader political dynamic: the power of anti-establishment rhetoric coupled with a promise of change, regardless of the ideological spectrum.
What sets Milei apart in the context of Gurri's thesis is his embodiment of a new kind of public leader – one who not only voices the public's frustrations but also offers a clear path forward. This is particularly significant in an era where public trust in traditional institutions and narratives is eroding rapidly.
Conclusion
The Argentine election reflects a global disillusionment with political elites and traditional narratives. Gurri's insights help us understand this as part of a larger trend, where the public, empowered by digital platforms, increasingly demands transparency, accountability, and authenticity from their leaders. Milei’s campaign capitalized on these desires by presenting a clear, albeit controversial, alternative to the established order.
The question now is what Milei's presidency will mean for Argentina. Will his promises of economic liberalism and a break from traditional politics translate into effective governance? And more broadly, what does his victory signify for the future of global politics? Gurri's analysis suggests that we may be entering an era where political success is increasingly tied to the ability to authentically connect with the public's concerns and offer tangible solutions, rather than relying on traditional political machinery and narratives.
In conclusion, Javier Milei's election as president of Argentina marks a significant shift in the political landscape, reflecting a deep public desire for change. His ability to attract a broad range of support, notably from those traditionally distant from far-right economic ideologies, underscores a growing global trend of disillusionment with conventional political structures. Milei's success, characterized by a blend of anti-establishment rhetoric and concrete economic proposals, highlights the fluidity and unpredictability of modern political dynamics. As the world observes Argentina, Milei's presidency becomes a crucial example of how radical political shifts are navigated and their potential global impact.