How China Aspires to Mold the Global Order
Book review: "The World According to China," (2022) by Elizabeth C. Economy.
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The Third Angle is run by Juan Aranovich, an economist from Argentina, managing editor of Unchained, researcher at Ryze Labs, and crypto enthusiast.
I’ve been reading a lot about China in the past 12 months. I believe that having a deep understanding of what’s going on in China will provide great insights into investment narratives, given that today’s world is so interconnected, with China playing the most important role in connecting the markets.
I just finished reading "The World According to China," (2022) by Elizabeth C. Economy, where the author embarks on a journey to unravel China's aspirations and strategies to mold the global order in alignment with its vision.
As a reader who found immense value in Economy's "The Third Revolution," I anticipated a similar revelatory experience from this work. While the book adeptly sketches the landscape of China's international ambitions, I found myself craving deeper insights into certain aspects, notably the COVID-19 pandemic's role in this geopolitical chess game.
China's Global Ambitions
Economy paints a vivid picture of a China poised to influence every facet of global decision-making, from the expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to its assertive "wolf warrior diplomacy." The narrative underscores China's unwavering commitment to its values and sovereignty, a theme encapsulated by Xi Jinping's strategic priorities: maintaining sovereignty, social stability, and the dream of a reunified China. This ambition, Economy argues, may lead China to accept significant upheavals in the international system to achieve its end goals.
However, the book's exploration of COVID-19—despite its mention early on—felt somewhat cursory. Given the pandemic's profound impact on global perceptions of China, and vice versa, a deeper dive could have offered invaluable perspectives on China's international image and strategy during this crisis.
The Paradox of Success
Economy's depiction of China as a global giant, influencing decision-making processes worldwide, resonates strongly. Her analysis of China's efforts to dominate multilateral organizations, investments, and initiatives like BRI reveals a nation striving to export its model of governance and values.
Yet, she highlights a paradox: the strategies propelling China's short-term foreign policy successes might sow the seeds of future challenges. Beijing's aggressive posture, from the South China Sea disputes to its crackdown on Hong Kong, inadvertently strengthens alliances among major Asian and global powers, potentially countering China's rise.
"The very characteristics that have enabled China to achieve its foreign policy objectives in the near term now risk undermining its future progress. "
“Beijing’s wolf warrior diplomacy, defiance of freedom of navigation norms in the South China Sea, aggressive military activity around sovereignty issues, including Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Sino-Indian border, and the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, and crackdown on Hong Kong have all contributed to strengthen relations among the larger Asian powers, such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and India."
Innovation and Cultural Rigidity
One of the most compelling critiques in Economy's work is the discussion on innovation. Despite China's hefty investment in R&D, the book hints at a cultural and systemic rigidity that stifles true innovation. The emphasis on replication and incremental innovation, without fostering a culture that rewards creativity and out-of-the-box thinking, may limit China's potential to lead in this domain.
While "The World According to China" offers a rich analysis, its American perspective is palpable, occasionally overshadowing a more balanced global viewpoint. The final chapter's lack of a robust, forward-looking policy recommendation for the U.S. encapsulates this sentiment, suggesting a missed opportunity to outline a strategic approach that leverages America's strengths in navigating the complex dynamics with China.
Soft Power and Global Influence
Economy's insights into China's soft power, through lenses like TikTok, illuminate Beijing's craving for global influence. Yet, the heavy-handed state involvement often dilutes these efforts, transforming potential soft power into sharp power tactics. The book adeptly discusses the varied reception of China's power plays, noting that military assertiveness in Asia has eroded its soft power, while economic and military strategies elsewhere have been met with mixed reactions.
“The objective of China’s soft, sharp, and even hard power efforts is to shape the political and economic choices of foreign actors in support of Beijing’s values and interests.”
Military Might and Regional Dynamics
On military advancements, Economy highlights China's significant enhancements in maritime capabilities, sparking increased regional defense spending. Similarly, the BRI's global footprint raises questions about China's ultimate intentions, as the initiative faces scrutiny over transparency, sustainability, and strategic motivations.
“The elevation of China’s maritime capabilities has been particularly noteworthy (…)
China has developed the largest coast guard in the world. (…)
China’s military assertiveness has further triggered rising arms expenditure throughout the region. Overall military spending by ASEAN increased 33 percent between 2009 and 2018. (…)
The PLA has indeed become deeply involved in the development, and in some cases management and ownership, of numerous ports at strategic points around the Indian and Pacific Oceans. While most are commercial ports, several could also serve a military role, raising questions concerning Beijing’s ultimate intentions in capitals throughout the world.”
Technological Ambitions and Challenges
The book's exploration of technology, particularly the Digital Silk Road, underscores China's ambition to set global standards in emerging tech domains. However, the intertwined fate of Chinese tech giants with the state raises international concerns, challenging their global expansion ambitions.
“The experiences of Ant Group, ByteDance, and Tencent confirm in the minds of many governments around the world that there is no meaningful separation between the CCP and Chinese technology companies – even if they are primarily privately held – and no check on the power of the Party. As a result, an increasing number of China’s most prominent technology companies are encountering new challenges as they seek to do business abroad.”
Conclusion
In sum, "The World According to China" offers a nuanced portrait of China's global strategy, albeit with areas craving deeper examination, such as COVID-19's geopolitical ramifications. While Economy's analysis is insightful, the book's somewhat U.S.-centric lens and the call for a more robust policy framework reflect the complex, often contentious relationship between the world's reigning superpowers and the ascending giant.