Election Results: Why My Friends Are Ready to Abandon Argentina
In a devastating crisis, the Peronist candidate won again. How on earth?
Argentina is a shitshow.
Over the past 30 years, the nation has largely been under the dominion of a singular political party. The result? A decline in nearly every sector that matters to its citizens: poverty has risen, education standards have plummeted, healthcare is in crisis, and quality of life has deteriorated. Issues like security, corruption, and dwindling savings further exacerbate the situation.
40% of the country is under the line of poverty. 57% of young people are poor. Less than 50% finish school on time.
Now, as if to add salt to the wound, we find ourselves in the throes of another massive crisis. A jaw-dropping inflation rate of 12% per month, which equates to 140% annually, threatens to further destabilize our economy. The "dollar blue", Argentina's black market for U.S. dollars (a necessity given the restrictions on purchasing dollars), soared to $1200 last week. This figure represents a 400% devaluation of the peso in just one year.
Amid this backdrop, where salaries in dollars are at their lowest in decades (with the sole exception being the hyperinflation crisis of 1989), Sergio Massa, the current Minister of Economy, decided to run for the presidency.
And, astonishingly, he won.
With 36.5% of the votes, Massa emerged first, followed by Javier Milei with 30% and Patricia Bullrich trailing at 23%. It's crucial to note that Massa's victory doesn't guarantee his presidency due to Argentina's electoral process. He now faces Milei in a "balotaje" or runoff.
The fact that Massa, a key figure in a government that presided over one of Argentina's worst economic crises, emerged at the forefront is a testament to the nation's deep-rooted affinity for Peronism. This political ideology seems to transcend data, facts, and the harsh realities faced by millions. At least 10 million Argentinians seem unwavering in their loyalty, possibly due to the immense political apparatus of the party and the intimidation tactics employed by its 'punteros'.
But how, in this dire context, did Massa secure his win? Several factors come into play:
The 'Plan Platita' Effect: After garnering a mere 29% in the primary elections, Massa implemented a series of populist measures. He abolished the VAT tax on essential goods, leading to a surge in supermarket consumption. He also reduced income tax. Massa effectively mortgaged Argentina's future for immediate electoral gains. Moreover, he weaponized the state machinery to sow fear. Here’s an image highlighting the potential price hikes in public transportation under his rivals. Nothing illegal, right?
The Bullrich Debacle: Bullrich, representing "Juntos por el Cambio", ran a lackluster campaign. Her lack of charisma and the party's evident internal divisions were evident. Despite being the victors in the 2015 elections and coming close in 2019, they now languish in third place, with many of their previous supporters gravitating towards alternatives like Milei and Juan Schiaretti.
The Milei Conundrum: While economically libertarian, Milei's political alignment mirrors global figures like Trump and Bolsonaro. His radical propositions and fierce criticism of the existing political establishment have both galvanized and terrified sections of the populace. His promise to "abolish privileges, not rights" resonates with many, but also instills fear in others.
It became clear that people chose the horrible status quo instead of betting on a future that’s scary and uncertain.
Everyone wants to leave
This brings me to the personal: my friends. For context, even professionals like lawyers and engineers earn less than $1000 USD a month.
The hope was that this election would be a turning point. But the results have been a hard pill to swallow.
The sentiment, "If Massa wins the balotaje, I buy a plane ticket that same night," encapsulates the despair many feel. I've witnessed numerous friends depart over the years, and if Massa clinches victory on November 19th, I fear many more will follow.
The dreams of many Argentinians, have shifted from homeownership, cars, and vacations to mere economic survival in a nation where political corruption thrives and the normal people suffer.
If Massa wins and takes the seat as President in December, all we’ll have to celebrate is the first-year anniversary of the 2023 World Cup.
However, as I recently shared with some close friends, I believe the outcome will be extremely close. And regardless of who emerges victorious, we must live our lives. We all possess the tools to not be solely reliant on the whims of politicians in charge. With some, the journey may be easier or harder, but that's the extent of it.
It's up to us to navigate our course, irrespective of the political landscape.